Today’s weather and what’s this about snow? (WS7 weather report 25-2-2018)

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It is a cold and frosty start to the day although the sun is shining brightly.  If you wrapped up warm it would be a lovely morning to go out for a walk.

It will not be before mid morning before we see the thermometer reach positive figures and once it does we will then see the reading soar up to 3 possibly 4c! Overnight will again be cold and frosty with the minimum temperature around -3c.

Today’s ENE breeze will be blowing at an average wind speed of around 8mph.  This will not help that day feel any warmer with the wind chill (based upon the Steadmann model) reducing the feel of -1c air temperature to around -4c.

We can’t ignore the fact that there is a lot of chat about the “beast from the east” i.e. the cold winds entering our area from the east bringing a higher risk of snow.

The Met Office have issued a yellow snow warning for our area next week.  Yellow warnings mean that severe disruption is likely.

My analysis shows that we are likely to see some snow on Tuesday and Wednesday (possibly moderate to heavy) as the conditions at 1.5km above the earth will be most favourable.  The conditions are currently forecast as marginal on Monday and Thursday.  It is really too early to predict properly for Friday as a great deal can change between now and then.  The bottom line is that we need to be prepared.

Summary: A cold and slightly frosty start.  Plenty of bright spells during the remainder of the day.

Observations made on 25/2/2018 at 08:09 hours Hammerwich, Staffordshire.
Temperature : -1.5c; Air pressure : 1022.9 mb rising slowly; Relative humidity 87%; Wind :10 mph ENE; Rain this month : 26.4mm; Rain this year : 85.8mm

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Today’s weather and the week ahead (WS7 weather report 24-2-2018)

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The air temperature today at around 07:00 hours was only -0.5c and, looking ahead, the day will remain relatively cool.  In 2013 and 2016 we encountered very similar air temperatures as those we will meet today.

The difference is in those two previous instances the following days got a little warmer.  This year the next few days will be getting cooler.

Today will start off cloudy but, as the morning passes, the cloud will lift and we will see clear spells develop.  As the day passes the surface air pressure will rise slowly ending the day at around 1028mb.  The risk of rain today is only around 5%.  If you can wrap up warm enough then today is a good day for getting out and about.

Our top temperature today will be around 4-5c but overnight, without the assistance of the cloud bed “blanket”, the minimum temperature will reduce to around -2c.

Today’s wind will be bringing with it cool air from the E-NE.  The average wind speed will be around 6mph (10Kmh) and at this wind speed, using the Steadmann method of calcualtion, 5c would feel more like 3.4c.  The early -0.5c air temperature with a breeze of 6mph will feel more like -2c.

Looking ahead through the week I can see that the Easterly wind will remain with us for much of the time.  It will, therefore, be a cold week with daytime temperature around freezing point.  Overnight air temperatures will be around -2 to -3c.

Mid week we see a risk of some snow with the “best” conditions at 1.5km above the earth being on Wednesday.  The perfect conditions for snow are when the air temperature at 1.5km above ground is below -0.5c and a value that measures “thickness” is below a certain value.  Thickness, in short, is really how warm or cool the air pressure layer is.  The higher the “thickness” value the warmer the air.  For snow to form the “thickness” value needs to be 528dam or below.  On Wednesday the value is forecast to be around 506dam.

As always, any forecast greater than 24 hours rapidly diminishes in accuracy and is subject to change.  I will, however, monitor this situation closely and keep you informed, on a daily basis, via this blog.

Summary: A cold and slightly frosty start.  Some bright spells developing but remaining cool.  Temperatures to around -2c overnight.

Observations made on 24/2/2018 at 06:46 hours Hammerwich, Staffordshire.
Temperature : -0.2c; Air pressure : 1022.5 mb rising slowly; Relative humidity 83%; Wind :8mph ENE; Rain this month : 26.4mm; Rain this year : 85.8mm

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Wrap up warm! (WS7 weather report 23-2-2018)

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It is a very cold and frosty start to the day with the air temperature only -3.3c at 06:30 hours.  This 06:30 hours equalled the overnight low recorded at 03:17 hours.

Care will need to be taken on untreated roads and paths this morning as icy patches are likely to have formed.

During the day we will see some bright spells via a generally cloud light or even cloud free sky.  This bright sky will allow our top temperature to rise to around 4c even possibly 5c.

At the same time (06:30 hours) last year the air temperature was 9.3c but we were being battered by 50 mph winds courtesy of storm Doris! Overnight tonight, with a little more cloud cover around, the minimum air temperature will be around -2c.

This morning’s breeze will be generally light and from the E-ESE.  The average wind speed will be around 4-5mph.  As the afternoon passes (and the air pressure reduces slightly to 1020mb) the wind speed will increase to an average of around 6-7mph.

Over the next few days each following day will be a little cooler than the one preceding.  By Wednesday and Thursday of next week we are unlikely to see any positive figures recorded on the thermometer during the day. The daytime air temperature at noon on Wednesday is likely to be around -2c.

Wrap up warm!

Summary: A cold and frosty start.  Some bright spells but remaining cool.  Minus temperatures again overnight.

Observations made on 23/2/2018 at 06:18 hours Hammerwich, Staffordshire.
Temperature : -3.2c; Air pressure : 1023.5 mb steady; Relative humidity 90%; Wind :Calm; Rain this month : 26.4mm; Rain this year : 85.8mm

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Getting cooler (WS7 weather report 22-2-2018)

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It is a calm start to the day but a lot cooler than at the same point last year.  At 06:30 hours this morning the air temperature was 2.5c whilst at the corresponding point last year the air temperature was 11.2c.

The difference is all due to cool air from the NE – E now beginning to enter our area and it will become quite chilly over the next week or so.  Yesterday I posted the GFS ensemble air temperature forecast and you will see (see image below) that it will be generally cool until, at least, the 9 March.

Today’s top temperature will be around 4c possibly 5c but overnight we will see the air temperature dip below freezing point at around -1c.  During the day the medium to high cloud cover will fragment from time to time to allow for some brighter spells to develop.

There is only a slight risk of some drizzle this morning but, overall, the risk of any measurable rain is less than 10%.

Today’s breeze will be deriving from the cool E and the average wind speed will be around 4mph.

 

Summary: A mild, dry but cooler day than of late.  Frost likely overnight.

Observations made on 22/2/2018 at 06:28 hours Hammerwich, Staffordshire.
Temperature : 4.9c; Air pressure : 1027.9 mb steady; Relative humidity 90%; Wind :Calm; Rain this month : 26.4mm; Rain this year : 85.8mm

GFS ensemble model (www.netweather.tv) suggesting a reduction in average air temperature over the next week or so.

GEFS Ensembles Chart

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Not so bright (WS7 weather report 21-2-2018)

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After yesterday’s glorious sunshine when many of us were able to get outside, even if only for a lunchtime walk, today will be much more of a cloudyand cool day.

The rain radar images are showing just a few rogue rain clouds that will pass through our area between 07:00 and 11:00 hours. Whilst the majority will simply blow by there is still a 40% risk of some light rain or drizzle.

Our top temperature today will be around 7c which is a lot cooler than the same time and day last year when the thermometer was reading around 11c.

The wind will be light as the air pressure will only reduce a little as the day passes (from 1028mb to 1024mb) but the wind will be deriving from the cold NE.  The average wind speed will only be 2 -3mph but even at this low speed it will add a real chill to the air.

Looking ahead the GFS ensemble (see image below) is suggesting that we will see a dip in air temperature at the end of the month and towards the beginning few days of March so don’t put away your scarf and gloves just yet!

Summary: Increasing air pressure will help bring some clear spells and a dry day.  Breezy at times but generally pleasant.

Observations made on 21/2/2018 at 06:32 hours Hammerwich, Staffordshire.
Temperature : 4.9c; Air pressure : 1027.9 mb steady; Relative humidity 90%; Wind :Calm; Rain this month : 26.4mm; Rain this year : 85.8mm

GFS ensemble model (www.netweather.tv) suggesting a reduction in average air temperature over the next week or so.

GEFS Ensembles Chart

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Get outside (WS7 weather report 20-2-2018)

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The rain radar images are showing (at approximately 06:35 hours) that any significant threat of rain is now beyond our area.

As the day passes the surface air pressure will continue to rise from around 1020mb to around 1028mb.  This high air pressure and the steady NW breeze will reduce any further risk of rain to only about 10%.

Today, will be an ideal day for “popping” out some washing to dry or going for a walk or just generally getting outside.

During the day we will see some bright spells and these will help lift our top temperature up to around 8c.  Overnight the minimum temperature will be around 4c.  This time last year we were in a spell of very mild weather.  The air temperature at the corresponding time a year ago was already 11.3c (compared to this morning’s 5.9c)

Today’s breeze will be deriving from the cool NW and the average wind speed will be around 6mph.  At this wind speed the wind chill will make our top temperature of 8c feel more like 6.8c.

Summary: Increasing air pressure will help bring some clear spells and a dry day.  Breezy at times but generally pleasant.

Observations made on 20/2/2018 at 06:35 hours Hammerwich, Staffordshire.
Temperature : 5.9c; Air pressure : 1020.3 mb rising slowly; Relative humidity 91%; Wind :5 mph NW; Rain this month : 26.4mm; Rain this year : 85.8mm

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Early rain? (WS7 weather report 19-2-2018)

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Overnight we have already seen some rain fall in our area and the rain radar images suggest that there is a high risk (80%) of further precipitation in our area up until around 09:45 hours.

After 09:45 rain cloud will move away from our area and towards the SE .  there are one or two “rogue” rain clouds that will pass through or near our area during the remainder of the morning but these will only present a 30% risk.  So far this year we have received around 10mm of more rain that at the corresponding period last year.

It will be a generally cloudy day but extremely mild with a top temperature of 10c and an overnight low of around 6-7c.

Today’s breeze will be generally light and deriving from the W-WNW.  The average wind speed today will be around 3-5mph.

Looking ahead we can currently see the GFS synoptic chart is suggesting that the air pressure will remain high through the week.  This is likely to bring some dry spells and, if the wind move towards the NE as they are suggesting, bright spells in the day with some cooler nights..

Summary: A generally cloudy day with a high risk of some rain during the morning commute.  Clearing after to leave a mild day.

Observations made on 19/2/2018 at 06:29 hours Hammerwich, Staffordshire.
Temperature : 7.7c; Air pressure : 1016.4 mb steady; Relative humidity 90%; Wind :calm; Rain this month : 24.4mm; Rain this year : 83.8mm

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