The air temperature today at around 07:00 hours was only -0.5c and, looking ahead, the day will remain relatively cool. In 2013 and 2016 we encountered very similar air temperatures as those we will meet today.
The difference is in those two previous instances the following days got a little warmer. This year the next few days will be getting cooler.
Today will start off cloudy but, as the morning passes, the cloud will lift and we will see clear spells develop. As the day passes the surface air pressure will rise slowly ending the day at around 1028mb. The risk of rain today is only around 5%. If you can wrap up warm enough then today is a good day for getting out and about.
Our top temperature today will be around 4-5c but overnight, without the assistance of the cloud bed “blanket”, the minimum temperature will reduce to around -2c.
Today’s wind will be bringing with it cool air from the E-NE. The average wind speed will be around 6mph (10Kmh) and at this wind speed, using the Steadmann method of calcualtion, 5c would feel more like 3.4c. The early -0.5c air temperature with a breeze of 6mph will feel more like -2c.
Looking ahead through the week I can see that the Easterly wind will remain with us for much of the time. It will, therefore, be a cold week with daytime temperature around freezing point. Overnight air temperatures will be around -2 to -3c.
Mid week we see a risk of some snow with the “best” conditions at 1.5km above the earth being on Wednesday. The perfect conditions for snow are when the air temperature at 1.5km above ground is below -0.5c and a value that measures “thickness” is below a certain value. Thickness, in short, is really how warm or cool the air pressure layer is. The higher the “thickness” value the warmer the air. For snow to form the “thickness” value needs to be 528dam or below. On Wednesday the value is forecast to be around 506dam.
As always, any forecast greater than 24 hours rapidly diminishes in accuracy and is subject to change. I will, however, monitor this situation closely and keep you informed, on a daily basis, via this blog.
Summary: A cold and slightly frosty start. Some bright spells developing but remaining cool. Temperatures to around -2c overnight.
Observations made on 24/2/2018 at 06:46 hours Hammerwich, Staffordshire.
Temperature : -0.2c; Air pressure : 1022.5 mb rising slowly; Relative humidity 83%; Wind :8mph ENE; Rain this month : 26.4mm; Rain this year : 85.8mm
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