Storm Ciara News – 8 February 2020

There is a lot of media talk and speculation about Storm Ciara.  I do think that interest (and in some cases media hysteria) in these weather events has heightened since the Irish and UK Met Offices began giving names to these low pressure systems.  In the past it would just have been another windy day in winter!

I will try to give you my candid view supported by the evidence I have available to me from the web and my own weather station equipment.

Low Pressure and Jet Stream Position

Firstly, it is undeniable that we are due to be hit by a low pressure system and this will remain with us for a few days (see chart 1 below).  The air pressure will begin to rise back to higher, more stable, levels from around mid month.

You will see that the air pressure will dip significantly tomorrow to around 980mb  which, due to the closeness of the isobars, will bring in the higher wind speeds. The main body of the low pressure system will be riding just to the north of the UK.

The, low pressure, created by the jet stream running across the UK from West to East (see chart 2).  This will bring wind speeds of around 15-35mph later today with gusts of around 25-50mph tomorrow.  

This level of wind speed requires some simple preparation such as making sure that loose objects in the garden are safely secured.  Travelling should be carefully considerd tomorrow as local flooding is possible during and after the heavy rainfall.

The second impact of the higher wind speeds will be the wind chill factor.  Although the surface air temperature will be around 10c it will feel more like 3-4c.

Rain will not be too much of a factor today but we could see some significant rain rates tomorrow particularly around noon although the risk of rain is greater than 60% likely for much of the day.

Chart 1 – Air pressure forecast

(https://www.netweather.tv/)

Air pressure forecas8 8.2.2020

Chart 2 – Jet Stream Position

(https://www.netweather.tv/)

Jet stream image 8.2.2020

 

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